Ricardo Sustainability, Clean Energy and Environment

Unlocking potential: waste infrastructure operators and the developing 'Waste-to-X' opportunity

30 May 2025

As the global waste landscape evolves, waste infrastructure operators are uniquely positioned to capitalise on the expanding Waste-to-X (WtX) sector. This innovative approach transforms various waste streams into valuable resources, aligning with circular economy principles and offering a sustainable alternative to traditional waste management practices.

The rise of Waste-to-X solutions

Waste-to-X encompasses a range of technologies that convert waste materials into useful products such as fuels, chemicals, or other valuable outputs. Unlike conventional Waste-to-Energy (WtE) methods, which primarily focus on energy recovery through incineration, WtX prioritises the extraction of higher-value resources, thereby enhancing material circularity and reducing environmental impact.

The global generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) has seen a significant surge increasing from approximately 1.64 billion tonnes in 2010 to over 2.24 billion tonnes in 2020. Projections indicate this figure could reach 3.87 billion tonnes by 2050. Despite advancements in waste treatment, a substantial portion of MSW - around 82% - remains inadequately managed, often due to limitations in local collection systems and the lack of competitive treatment technologies, especially in developing regions.

Opportunities for Waste Infrastructure Operators

For operators within conventional waste management, the shift towards WtX presents several opportunities:

Diversification of services: By integrating WtX technologies, operators can expand their service offerings beyond waste collection and disposal, trialling the commercialised production of renewable fuels, chemicals, and other valuable commodities such as recovered metals or biochar.
Enhanced sustainability: WtX solutions contribute to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by diverting waste from landfills and decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. For instance, the Western Isles council in Scotland has implemented a system that converts non-recyclable waste into solid recovered fuel (SRF), emitting 95% less CO₂ equivalent than traditional fossil fuels.
Economic viability: The production of high-value outputs (such as monomers from plastics recycling, and SAF, green hydrogen and other synthetic fuels) from waste can open new revenue streams. Additionally, the growing demand for sustainable products and stricter environmental regulations can enhance the marketability and profitability of WtX-derived products.

Waste-to-SAF

Producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from waste streams such as municipal solid waste, agricultural residues, and industrial by-products presents a critical pathway to decarbonising aviation. With limited fuel alternatives with sufficient density and aviation contributing to c.2.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions, low carbon fuel alternatives are essential for this sector to deliver any emissions reductions.

Key considerations include feedstock availability and consistency, stringent fuel quality requirements, and adherence to sustainability certification frameworks like the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) or CORSIA. The production process must ensure lifecycle emissions reductions of at least 70% compared to fossil kerosene, often requiring advanced technologies such as gasification followed by Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or alcohol-to-jet pathways.

The market potential is significant with global SAF demand projected to reach over 20 billion litres by 2030 driven by airline commitments, regulatory mandates, and net-zero targets, there is an estimated financial value of USD $30–40 billion globally. However, key blockers include high capital costs, policy uncertainty, and underdeveloped supply chains. Addressing these requires targeted government support through subsidies, long-term offtake agreements with airlines, and clearer policy signals to de-risk investment. Scaling SAF from waste also benefits from regional feedstock assessments and integrated infrastructure planning, ensuring economic and logistical viability.

Factoring in Waste-to-X implementation

Transitioning to WtX solutions requires navigating the following:

Feedstock quality and consistency: WtX technologies require specific waste compositions to function optimally. Ensuring a consistent and suitable feedstock supply is crucial, necessitating robust pre-treatment processes and quality control measures.
Regulatory hurdles: Obtaining environmental permits for new WtX facilities can be a protracted process, sometimes taking over a year. Additionally, the standardised specifications for waste-derived products can impede market entry and acceptance.
Market dynamics: The economic viability of WtX outputs is influenced by commodity markets, which can be volatile. Establishing stable off-take agreements and understanding market demands are essential for long-term success.

Strategic considerations for successful integration

To effectively integrate WtX solutions, waste infrastructure operators should consider the following strategic approaches:

Comprehensive feasibility studies: Assessing the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of potential WtX projects is vital. This includes evaluating feedstock availability, technology readiness, and market demand for end products.
Collaborative partnerships: Engaging with technology providers, regulatory bodies, and potential off-takers can facilitate project development and implementation.
Investment in innovation: Staying up to date with technological advancements and investing in research and development can enhance operational efficiency and product quality.

Embracing the future of waste management

The transition towards Waste-to-X solutions represents a significant shift in waste management, supporting the wider evolution from a linear disposal model to a circular resource recovery approach. For waste infrastructure operators, embracing this shift not only aligns with global sustainability goals but also offers avenues for business growth and resilience in an evolving industry landscape.

Ricardo’s experts can provide insight, guidance and support for Waste-to-X projects, including Waste-to-SAF. From site feasibility, feedstock assessments, infrastructure planning, economic and logistical viability, and production to specification.