Supporting long-term strategy development in Jordan
Jordan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), updated in 2021, commits the country to a 31% emissions reduction target compared to business as usual by 2030, and incorporates an adaptation vision and objective directly linked to the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) launched in 2017. Whilst the updated NDC aims to pave the way for a future climate change Long Term Strategy (LTS) for Jordan, most national plans and strategies are focussed on the short and medium-term. The Ministry of Environment recognised the need to consider climate actions and goals over a longer timescale. Whilst it is important that an LTS is country driven, the technical inputs, supporting processes and engagement needs can be significant, and there is no established guidance, best practices or ‘one size fits all’ approach.
On behalf of the Government of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the World Bank commissioned Ricardo to prepare a detailed roadmap for the formulation of a Long-term Low-carbon and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS or 2050 pathway) for Jordan.
Ricardo prepared a detailed recommendations report and a roadmap for Jordan’s long-term strategy, as a reference guide to support the government and its partners to take forwards the LTS development process. The report contained a suggested framework for how an LTS could be structured and developed and what it should contain. This included key information and data that would form the evidence base for the strategy, and core processes that underpin development of the LTS.
The work included the following analytical elements. These were undertaken through a combination of stakeholder interviews and consultations, and research and analysis:
- Assessment of Jordan's national circumstances including socio-economic development, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and refugee crisis, sustainable development goals (SDGs), and detailed analysis of gender mainstreaming priorities and opportunities. This analysis ensured that recommendations for the LTS were grounded in country priorities and supported broader development objectives.
- Assessment of Jordan's existing visions and goals from cross-cutting and sectoral plans and strategies. This included an analysis of the various visions and goals, and their synthesis into suggested vision themes incorporating resilience, low-carbon and sustainable future pathways, a prosperous green economy, and leaving no one behind. The suggested process and vision themes ensured that Jordan’s priorities of adaptation and equitable development remained front and centre in the LTS. The recommendations included draft text for the vision statement covering all the key elements, and recommendations for how this could be further refined with stakeholders to ensure an inclusive, evidence-based, inspiring, fair, long-term, dynamic, country-driven vision
- Assessment of existing mitigation commitments and baseline emissions, including prior modelling experience in the country. The recommendations included potential future mitigation pathways for Jordan based on national priorities and commitments, and actions for decarbonisation, informed by international analyses.
- An in-depth review of available modelling tools and the modelling needs for an LTS, to complement the mitigation pathways assessment. This included recommendations on the suitability of different tools and approaches in a Jordanian context, and the likely effort and cost of undertaking comprehensive economy-wide modelling.
- A comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessment for Jordan, reviewing and analysing data and information across all sectors. This enabled the identification of the highest vulnerabilities and vulnerable sectors, identified as water, transport, forestry and ecosystems, and tourism. The recommendations provided examples of measures that could be adopted to address adaptation and increase resilience to the impacts of climate change.
From the analytical elements above, a suggested framework and approach for Jordan to develop its LTS was developed, around an example set of 15 cross-sectoral ‘climate strategy pillars’. These encompassed all adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development priorities and under each, options for actions were suggested.
The roadmap and recommendations also identified key processes that Jordan would need to enhance or could undertake to support the successful development and implementation of the LTS, particularly to ensure a participatory, inclusive and equitable process. This included the following activities:
- A comprehensive review and assessment of existing climate governance structures in Jordan, leading to a set of recommendations to enhance the existing structures in order to meet typical LTS governance needs.
- An outline of the recommended stakeholder consultation and engagement process, the necessary inputs and mechanisms for consultation and participation, to maximise buy-in and engagement.
- A review of existing citizen engagement processes in Jordan and examples of approaches to engage, consult and empower citizens in the LTS development. These included, for example, formation of a citizen panel.
- Review of the existing MRV system and recommendations for LTS MRV integration.
As a final step following the analytical work above, a detailed LTS implementation plan was drawn up which would enable the technical content and recommendations to be developed into Jordan’s LTS submission. This included the recommended phasing of activities, necessary steps, key questions, and consultation and technical input needs. This also included high level costing for some key technical components.
The project aimed to provide the government of Jordan with the necessary analysis, guidance and recommendations, and an outline of the steps needed for the country to develop its LTS. Through the desk-based research into good practices and lessons learned, review and synthesis of current and ongoing activities in Jordan, and stakeholder interviews and inputs, the outputs and recommendations were shaped in a way that reflected national needs and priorities, and would also build national capacity in their implementation. The work was presented to the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry is currently taking forward the development of the country’s LTS.
The framework and approach outlined for the development of Jordan’s LTS was intended to help align the country’s short-term responses to long-term goals, as well as supporting wider climate objectives in the country. In particular, the LTS roadmap process emphasised:
- The opportunity to shift decision-making and strategic thinking to the longer-term perspective
- The importance of putting climate change on the highest political agenda
- The role of an overarching framework for adoption and mainstreaming of climate priorities across all sectors and strategies and ensuring that near-term actions (such as those in the NDC) are consistent with long-term goals
- The importance of bringing together existing work on climate change under one banner, helping to demonstrate linkages between sectoral plans, climate policies, NDCs, NAPs, and other long-term priorities.
- The new economic opportunities that could be unlocked through a comprehensive LTS process, that would better support the transition to a low carbon and resilient society (e.g. avoid making decarbonisation costlier and more difficult over the longer term)